GOVERNMENTS/ASSOCIATIONS/FASTENER GROUPS
EU Carbon Price to Rise to €185 by 2035, Pushing Steel and Aluminum Carbon Costs Higher
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2026-05-12
BloombergNEF's latest forecast suggests that carbon prices under the EU Emissions Trading System could surge to around €185 per ton by 2035. The average price is projected at about €86 per ton in 2026 and €142 per ton by 2031, indicating that carbon pricing will become a major cost driver for high‑emission industries such as steel and aluminum.
The EU is tightening emission caps and cutting free allowance allocations for hard‑to‑abate sectors covered by CBAM, including steel, cement and aluminum, which will sharply raise carbon‑cost exposure for these products. In 2024, iron and steel alone accounted for around 70% of CBAM‑covered imports, primarily sourced from China, Turkey, India and the UK. If companies fail to verify and report their actual emissions and instead rely on the European Commission’s conservatively high default values, import costs for steel from certain countries could rise by tens of percentage points; in extreme cases, these default obligations may approach €500 per ton by 2030—equivalent to the steel product price itself—forcing exporters to strengthen carbon inventory and secure EU‑recognized certifications to remain competitive in the European market.
歐盟碳排放交易體系
CBAM
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鋼鐵業
鋁業
碳成本
碳盤查
歐盟認證
EU ETS
carbon fee
iron and steel industry
aluminum industry
carbon cost
carbon inventory
EU-recognized certification
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國際展會
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GOVERNMENTS/ASSOCIATIONS/FASTENER GROUPS
2026-05-12
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