On August 29, 2023, Taiwan CSC held a quarterly steel production and sales conference in its B1F International Conference Hall. According to the data released by the Taiwan National Development Council, the Taiwanese economic sentiment indicator color was blue this July, representing a "downturn", but the good news is that the indicator has been slowly improving over the past six months and is about to turn blue-yellow, representing a "turnaround". This means the Taiwanese economy will show signs of "bottoming out" in Q4. However, it is still uncertain how strong the rebound will be, and the future will generally show a gradual growth trend. In addition, the five major Taiwanese official organizations estimated Taiwanese average GDP growth rate at 1.69%. The export sales of Taiwanese basic metals (including fasteners) in the first half of 2023 fell 26.5% over the same period of last year.
According to the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, "In the basic metal industry, the global steel market demand continues to be weak. Clients are conservative in placing orders, and there is a larger annual decline in exports and overseas sales. In addition, the industry adjusted its production capacity in accordance with the trend, which affects the performance of indicators such as the demand and raw material input,. As a result, the industry's economic climate indicator color remained blue for the 14th month in a row in July, representing a recession.”
In the fastener-related construction market, the number of new housing starts in the U.S. reached 1.45 million this July, up 5.9% from a year earlier. According to Taiwan CSC, due to the severe shortage of second-hand houses, the U.S. residential construction demand has improved recently, but mortgage rates rose to a nearly 20-year high, which is likely to dampen demand for new construction.
U.S. new car sales rose 14.7% to 1.31 million in July. According to Taiwan CSC, the auto consumer market was stronger than expected, and with the previous supply chain problems continuing to ease, carmakers were able to produce more in response to demand, so sales are expected to continue to rise in the future. Research firm S&P Global Mobility has revised the 2023 U.S. new car sales from 13.3 million to 15.4 million vehicles.
New car sales in Europe increased 1.045 million vehicles in July, up 17.8% year-on-year. According to Taiwan CSC, the rebound in European new car sales in the first half of 2023 indicates that the supply chain of the automotive industry has gradually emerged from the predicament of shortage of key electronic components after a prolonged period of adjustment. Future growth can be expected.
According to Taiwan Industrial Fasteners Institute, in the first seven months of 2023, the export weight of Taiwan's major fastener categories totaled 761,200 tons, an annual decrease of 25.16%. The average unit price was US$ 3.81 per kilogram, an increase of 0.75%.
In the first seven months of 2023, the top five export destinations for Taiwan's fasteners were the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, and Canada. The weight of Taiwan's fasteners exported to the Netherlands fell 2.35%, while the export weight to the other four destinations fell more than 20%, and even more than 35% to Canada. As of the first half of 2023, Taiwan's export of fasteners to the world have dropped 24.4% in value compared to the same period last year.
Taiwan CSC summarized the above data and said that the pressure of the manufacturing supply chain has eased, driving the inflation growth to slow down, easing the downward pressure on the global economy. With the rapid tightening of monetary policy, the global economy is still facing a soft landing. The IMF predicts that the global GDP growth rate will remain at around 3% in 2023 and 2024. This means that, although the overall economy is gradually warming up, it will still take a while for this upward trend to reflect in the manufacturing industry and the basic metal industry. Facing the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, Taiwan fastener business owners still need to remain cautious.
production and sales seminar
new housing starts