The economy is projected to return to growth in the second half of 2013. However, annual GDP is forecast to contract by 0.1% in the EU and 0.4% in the eurozone.

Following the recession that marked 2012, the EU economy is forecast to stabilise in the first half of 2013. GDP is expected to start growing again in the second half of the year, slowly at first, but picking up speed in 2014.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, demand within the EU is still held back by several factors including the reduction of the debt overhang and a shortage of credit. The main driver of growth this year is therefore likely to be net exports. Private consumption and investment in the EU look set to pick up modestly next year. This forecast is based on the assumption that continued policy efforts will prevent the sovereign-debt crisis from worsening.

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